Oil Slides Below $100 After Trump Announces Iran Ceasefire Deal

Global oil prices plunged below the $100 mark on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, easing fears of prolonged supply disruption.

The deal, which is conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a sharp market reaction as traders anticipated the return of smoother oil flows through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

Market Reaction

Crude benchmarks recorded steep losses in early trading:

• Brent crude dropped $14.84 (13.6%) to $94.43 per barrel
• WTI crude fell $16.13 (14.3%) to $96.82 per barrel

The declines reflect renewed optimism that global supply chains could stabilize after weeks of disruption driven by escalating conflict.

Ceasefire Conditions

Trump’s announcement came just hours before a deadline he had set for Iran to reopen the strait or face widespread attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Iran, through Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, confirmed it would halt attacks and allow safe passage through Hormuz for two weeks, provided military actions against it also stop.

Trump described the agreement as a “double-sided ceasefire,” marking a significant shift from earlier threats of large-scale destruction.

Lingering Security Concerns

Despite the ceasefire announcement, tensions remain high across the Gulf region. Several countries reported missile launches, drone activity, and civilian safety warnings, underscoring the fragility of the deal.

Analysts caution that even with a temporary truce, the crisis may leave a lasting impact on oil markets.

“Even with a peace deal, Iran may be emboldened to threaten the Strait more frequently,” said analyst Saul Kavonic, noting that risk premiums could persist.

Volatility Still in Play

The ongoing conflict had already driven oil prices to historic levels, with a surge of over 50% in March—one of the sharpest monthly increases ever recorded.

While the ceasefire offers short-term relief, experts say uncertainties remain:

• Negotiations toward a long-term deal are still ongoing
• Market volatility could continue depending on compliance
• Supply risks may remain priced into oil futures

Outlook

Trump revealed that Iran had submitted a 10-point proposal, which he described as a “workable basis” for achieving a broader peace agreement.

However, analysts warn that the path to stability is uncertain, with the ceasefire seen as only an initial step toward restoring confidence in global energy markets.